Floodplain wetlands have declined substantially in extent and condition across the globe. Ongoing wetland persistence is threatened by a combination of land-use change, water extraction, and climatic drivers, including drought and altered flood regimes. We assessed changes to wetland inundation within three catchments of north-east Victoria, Australia, over the time-period 1988 – 2024, using Landsat satellite imagery (validated with Sentinel-2 data). We developed regression models where we first investigate whether trends in inundation response have changed over time, and then whether potential factors (river discharge, distance to river, land tenure) influence those trends. We also assessed the decline and recovery before, during and after the Millennium Drought (1997–2009).
Consistent with global declines, our results showed that there has been a long-term (decadal) and persistent drying in wetland habitats in this region. This has resulted in the decline of wetland habitat extent over time, and an increase in the time these wetlands are dry. Recovery to pre-drought levels has not occurred. Land tenure was a significant factor, with larger wetland extents observed on private land, suggesting that different management strategies may be appropriate on public versus private land. Whilst documenting and understanding decline is important, we also propose potential management solutions, for these ecologically important and now endangered habitats.